Financial Summary

The model is built bottom-up from the property's real expense records, with a complete standard hotel cost set (rooms; food & beverage; sales & marketing; administrative & general; property maintenance; energy; payment processing; taxes & licenses; professional fees; training; insurance). The restart timeline is deliberate: funding is assumed around September, so 2026 is a closed year with no revenue — its OPEX is only minimum maintenance ($4,576/month, Aug–Dec) plus a $50k marketing budget to enable the 2027 launch (repairs sit in CapEx, not OPEX). Operations begin in 2027 at 10% occupancy, and ramp to a stabilized 55% by 2031.

P&L summary (USD, management estimate)

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031 (stab.)
Occupancy	0%	10%	25%	40%	50%	55%
Revenue	–	$0.99M	$2.20M	$3.44M	$4.29M	$4.74M
Cost-to-serve	$0.07M	$1.12M	$1.67M	$2.21M	$2.58M	$2.78M
EBITDA	($0.07M)	($0.13M)	$0.54M	$1.22M	$1.70M	$1.97M
EBITDA margin	–	–	25%	35%	40%	41.5%
Net income	($0.27M)	($0.39M)	$0.23M	$0.85M	$1.31M	$1.56M

What the numbers say

The first two years are loss-making by design, then the property turns profitable in 2028 and compounds. The stabilized EBITDA margin of ~41.5% is above the global lodge benchmark of 25–32%, driven by premium villa pricing and low Peruvian labor costs. The model carries a $100,000 climate contingency reserve, treats the wooden buildings on a conservative 15-year life, and budgets major maintenance of about $91,000 every two years. In a downside case (occupancy −30%, rates −15%, costs +15%) the stabilized margin is still positive at ~23%; the model also runs a full closed-year (business-interruption) stress, cushioned by the reserve and insurance.

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